Speculative logistics development in France has lost momentum, according to the eighth annual study of the market from Arthur Loyd Logistique. Since 2016 the firm has counted 145 speculative launches, adding some 5.5 million sqm of ready-to-let space.
A Market in Low Gear
The cooling is stark. Last year brought just 11 speculative launches for a combined 390,000 sqm, and the first half of this year added only five, at 144,000 sqm. Speculative building runs into two problems, said associate director Didier Terrier: financial equations that are harder to balance, and letting risk that operators struggle to absorb when demand is uncertain.
What Is Shifting
Developers are recentring on intermediate boxes of 20,000 to 40,000 sqm after the appetite for XXL sites faded. Divisibility is now designed in to spread risk, with 70% of marketed programmes split into units in 2025 against 25% in 2016. Projects are also spreading beyond the traditional logistics spine, gaining ground on the edges of the Paris region and into Centre-Val-de-Loire, Normandy and Grand Est.
Vacancy Tells the Story
Absorption is the sharpest signal. In 2022, a record year for take-up, 80% of speculative space was let before or during the quarter it was delivered. Since 2023 that has flipped, and half of marketed volumes are now let only after delivery. To date, 52% of space delivered since 2024 sits empty. Investors have eased off in step: speculative building made up 15% of logistics investment in 2022, worth €711M, but fell to 5% in 2025, or €156M.
Terrier is not writing off the model. In the right locations, he argued, speculative space is still the only immediate new-build answer for shippers and providers that cannot wait 18 months for a bespoke site.
