For the third consecutive year, the volume of logistics space leased in France declined in 2025, but by only 4%. This places France in the middle of the pack in BNP Paribas Real Estate’s annual European study, which recorded 19.4 million square meters leased — a 3% increase across the six main markets (in order of volume: Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and Spain).
A mixed picture across Europe
This aggregated view reflects a 2025 that was “mixed,” below the ten-year average, but the overall resilience of user markets amid high uncertainty requires nuance. Growth was in double digits in the UK and Germany (+13% and +12% respectively), with the UK seeing strong activity in the Midlands (40% of transactions), particularly in the healthcare and defense sectors, while Germany stood out for 3PL transactions on behalf of e-commerce players.
At +8%, the Spanish market was driven by GDP growth of 2.9%, nearly reaching the record volume of 2022. Among declining markets, Poland fell more than France at -5%, but a second-half rebound was already reducing the vacancy rate (7.4% at year-end). The sharpest decline was in the Netherlands at -11%, where land scarcity and administrative constraints even led the secondhand market to surpass new-build for the first time.
Persistent rent increases
The widely shared challenge of available land is one factor behind a persistent rise in rents, averaging +4.5% across the 23 countries and more than 45 markets studied in Europe. BNP Paribas Real Estate notes that this increase is also driven by a slowdown in speculative developments, rising construction costs, and the upgrading of warehouse quality. The firm forecasts this upward trend to continue in 2026, albeit at a more moderate pace.
However, this average must also be viewed in light of the wide disparity in vacancy rates, ranging from 2% to 11% depending on the area. Prime rents range from below 60 euros in cities like Poznan, Lille, or Bucharest to above 300 euros on the outskirts of London.
